In December last year, the Punjab Congress leadership had its ears to the ground when it rejected an alliance with AAP in Punjab, citing political vendetta, despite both parties being part of the INDIA bloc. Six months down the line, their political intuition has proved accurate as the results of the 2024 parliamentary elections set the tone for the party’s revival after its worst drubbing in the 2022 Assembly elections.
The Congress has managed to demolish the strongholds of the BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Gurdaspur and Ferozepur, respectively. In Ferozepur, the party ended a 40-year spell of SAD dominance, while in Gurdaspur, it broke the BJP’s 26-year hold, barring one term of Partap Singh Bajwa in 2009.
Despite winning an impressive seven out of 13 seats, the Congress’s vote share has dipped to 26.30%, its lowest since 2009, when it secured 40.12% of votes to win eight seats in a direct fight with the SAD-BJP alliance. In 2014, the party garnered 33.10% of the vote share but won only three seats in a triangular contest. In 2019, it won eight seats with 34.17% of votes.
The anti-BJP sentiment among farmers, who constitute 22% of the vote share, anti-incumbency against the ruling AAP government, and the Congress’s promise of Rs 1 lakh annually to poor women have all played in favor of the grand old party. Additionally, party leaders have joined forces to mobilize the cadres.
Party strategists note that the dip in vote share, despite winning seven seats, is due to the fact that Congress and AAP share the same vote bank. Contesting separately has benefited AAP but led to a decline in Congress’s vote share in multi-cornered contests.
Leader of Opposition Partap Singh Bajwa believes the Congress has bounced back ahead of the next Assembly elections. “Only the Congress can counter the BJP in Punjab. Winning eight seats in the 2019 parliamentary elections when Capt Amarinder Singh was in the driver’s seat, to now winning seven seats as the principal opposition in the Assembly, is a big achievement. Despite being in power, AAP could get only three seats. More setbacks for AAP are in the offing,” he said.
As celebrations continue, the Punjab Congress also faces a potential internal battle for supremacy, indicating both a significant comeback and a challenging road ahead for the party.
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